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A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the country and triggered chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.

That represents the warning from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion

The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.

"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.

Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail here and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."

Appeal for Wider Discussion

Westminster should join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."